Dodgy Math about Vaccines

Ok, I might tread on some toes here but it is my blog :-).

So one of the things that many large, homeschooling families are "known for" is being anti-vaccination.  I think that isn't too surprising. We're already a group that is swimming against the tide of public normalcy. We're having way more than the usual 2.1 kids (or whatever it is -- birth rates keep falling.)

We've opted out of the public school system, which is a bizarre and weird decision.  I grew up mostly attending public schools and even though I was miserable off and on through many of my ps years, it was normal.  It wasn't until Kevin and I were married that I thought seriously about homeschooling and by the time Naomi was growing in my womb, we were set on this oddball academic path in life.  (I have never regretted it.)

Many of my homeschooling friends home birth, also weird.  Homeschoolers are often considered "crunchy" -- more into essential oils and great eating than pharmaceuticals.

Some of the vaccines were originally developed using aborted fetal cells.  That one is pretty rough for me as I am ardently pro life.  (If anyone cares, I can provide my reasoning for why we still vaccinate in spite of this issue.)

I respect my Christians brothers and sisters who are opposed to vaccination.  We are not. Our kids are fully vaxed except for  Gardisil, which is for the sexually transmitted disease HPV.

I am in agreement that vaccinations should not be forced by the government.  It's a tricky issue because I believe vaccination does save lives, BUT once the government forces its citizens to have things injected into them, it can keep doing things "for the greater good" which cross the line of personal freedom.

Ok, this is what I want to talk about today. As I said, I respect my friends who have chosen not to vaccinate.  The medical establishment has been and is wrong about some things.  I think diabetes is treated very poorly, and many meds are pushed on people when perhaps some other lifestyle change would be more efficacious.

Vaccination has been remarkably successful based on my reading and understanding. Smallpox eradicated, polio nearly so, same for measles and mumps and rubella when vaccination rates are high in a population.

The thing is, the anti-vax crowd sometimes does the most horrific things with data and that is what I want to talk about today.

I got something nutty in my FB feed yesterday.  It said:

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You Are 4.7 times More Likely to Get Whooping Cough If You are Vaccinated

CDC Statistics for Whooping Cough
2013-2018

Vaccinated - 12,772
Unvaccinated - 2717

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I would like to say this is a joke but it is not. The woman who posted it clearly believed that this data proves that getting the pertussis (whooping cough) vaccination increased your risk of getting pertussis by 4.7 times.

Ok, I think, I hope, it is obvious that this is GARBAGE but I am going to spell it out.

You cannot, cannot, cannot directly compare the number of whooping cough cases.  You must account for the populations of each group!!!!!!!

Here is an alternate example to prove my point.

Suppose that 10 people are not vaccinated for measles and 5 people get measles.

Suppose that 10,000 people ARE vaccinated for measles and 50 people get measles.

According to the dodgy, absurd, ridiculous math shown above, getting the vaccination increases your risk of getting measles by a factor of 10.

Because vaxed group: 50 cases.
Unvaxed group: 5 cases.

BUT BUT BUT there were a very small number who were not vaxed.  In my (made up) example, a full 50% of the unvaxed people got measles when only 0.5% of the vaxed people got measles.  The data supports the measles vaccine helping people not get measles.

You MUST know how many people are in each population to determine whether a vaccination is helpful!

I wish this was a singular example but it is not. I've done research on anti vax sites and this kind of math absurdity is incredibly common.  Frankly, they are either being openly deceptive (which I think is more likely to prove their own point) or they are terrible at math.  And if the latter, they have no business messing with numbers to throw at an unsuspecting public.

I am not artistic at all so I have no beef with those who struggle with numbers. We all have our strengths and weaknesses.  But don't, please don't, publish horrible data like this to prove your point. If vaccination is truly bad, the data ought to be out there in some reasonable form.

I've seen horrible graphs messing with x and y axes, I've seen other stuff that makes me foam at the mouth.  Let's be honest about the data, please!  Don't try to trick people into believing your anti-vax stance by dividing random numbers by random numbers and claiming absurdities by what is shown above.

Please.

Ok, rant over.